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option to use a particular trial for CV test set (#4996)#4996

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bletham wants to merge 3 commits intofacebook:mainfrom
bletham:export-D95824210
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option to use a particular trial for CV test set (#4996)#4996
bletham wants to merge 3 commits intofacebook:mainfrom
bletham:export-D95824210

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@bletham bletham commented Mar 9, 2026

Summary:

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210

@meta-cla meta-cla bot added the CLA Signed Do not delete this pull request or issue due to inactivity. label Mar 9, 2026
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meta-codesync bot commented Mar 9, 2026

@bletham has exported this pull request. If you are a Meta employee, you can view the originating Diff in D95824210.

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codecov-commenter commented Mar 9, 2026

Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 97.88732% with 3 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
✅ Project coverage is 96.29%. Comparing base (0d3535e) to head (3417375).
⚠️ Report is 1 commits behind head on main.

Files with missing lines Patch % Lines
ax/analysis/plotly/arm_effects.py 97.82% 1 Missing ⚠️
ax/analysis/plotly/utils.py 91.66% 1 Missing ⚠️
ax/analysis/utils.py 95.65% 1 Missing ⚠️
Additional details and impacted files
@@           Coverage Diff            @@
##             main    #4996    +/-   ##
========================================
  Coverage   96.29%   96.29%            
========================================
  Files         611      611            
  Lines       67338    67451   +113     
========================================
+ Hits        64846    64955   +109     
- Misses       2492     2496     +4     

☔ View full report in Codecov by Sentry.
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bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 10, 2026
Summary:

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Differential Revision: D95824210
bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 10, 2026
Summary:
Pull Request resolved: facebook#4996

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Differential Revision: D95824210
@meta-codesync meta-codesync bot changed the title option to use a particular trial for CV test set option to use a particular trial for CV test set (#4996) Mar 13, 2026
bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 13, 2026
Summary:

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210
bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 13, 2026
Summary:
Pull Request resolved: facebook#4996

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210
bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 23, 2026
Summary:

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210
bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 23, 2026
Summary:
Pull Request resolved: facebook#4996

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210
bletham added a commit to bletham/Ax that referenced this pull request Mar 23, 2026
Summary:

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210
Summary:
Pull Request resolved: facebook#4996

In situations where we have a target trial that is significantly different from other trials on the experiment, for instance if there was a system rebase in between two trials, we really care especially about our ability to predict the target trial, as that is what we expect to see moving forward. This adds a kwarg to the DiagnosticAnalysis to specify a particular trial for the diagnostics. All trials will still be used as train arms in each CV fold, but the test arms will be limited to arms in that trial.

Reviewed By: mpolson64

Differential Revision: D95824210
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meta-codesync bot commented Mar 23, 2026

This pull request has been merged in c8124ff.

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